February 1, 2006 (Reuters) - Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has begun 2006 in an unaccustomed position for a man once hailed as one of Africa's new model leaders. His democratic credentials are under assault from growing ethnic and political rifts.
The border dispute with Eritrea has been rumbling with whispers of a new war. Donors have cut direct aid over a post-election crackdown on the opposition and the media. However, analysts say Meles is likely to weather the storm through the goodwill of allies such as the United States, the use of the security services to quell and divide any vocal opposition, and by avoiding a new war with Eritrea. "What he'll be hoping to do is emulate what leaders in other African countries where reputations have suddenly taken a knock, and that is ride it out," said Tom Cargill, an Africa analyst with London's Chatham House think-tank.
With a pervasive security and intelligence service to keep his ruling Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) abreast of internal or external threats, he should have the strength to do it, analysts said.
"If he has to resort to crackdowns, he'll do that. And the West is going to continue to be there for him and ask him to do things for them," said Stephen Morrison, Africa director at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Meles has room to manoeuvre because the West's approach to Ethiopia is disunited, even though donors including Britain and the World Bank cut direct aid in protest at the mass arrest, and treason and genocide trial of about 130 opposition leaders.
Cargill said the West had tolerated similar oppression from Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni, a peer and ex-rebel leader like Meles. It was bad timing for Meles since he was a member of British Prime Minister Tony Blair's Africa Commission, which produced an African revival plan in 2005.
"His was a neck everyone was sort of looking to chop," he said.
Washington spared Meles the axe and kept aid to its top counter-terrorism ally in the Horn of Africa intact, saying it was the only country in the region moving towards democracy.
The only negative U.S. response to the crackdown that cost more than 80 lives during protests in November and June was to bar future sales of Humvee trucks. Originally sold to Ethiopia for counter-terrorism, U.S. officials
watched in dismay as TV footage showed them being used to quell post-election protests.
'BRUSHFIRE REBELLIONS'
Meles has promised Ethiopia will give no quarter when it comes to arresting people it says are trying to overthrow the government. In an interview with Reuters earlier this month, he rejected reports up to 50,000 people were imprisoned, referring to some 600 people detained in street protests and the 130 on trial.
Critics say the government's behaviour is unacceptable -- silencing critical journalists, harassing or jailing potential opponents countrywide and stirring ethnic rivalries with speeches by political operatives. The government denies this.
What may be a saving grace for Meles is that the opposition gained extra seats in parliament in the May 15 elections that sparked the violence.
"Even though the government is showing all these signs of autocratic behaviour, they supervised a process that saw the opposition's strength increase tenfold," International Crisis Group analyst Matt Bryden said.
Much depends on whether the EPRDF allows a stronger but splintered opposition more room in the political discourse.
"If they try to dominate, then we're probably going to see little brushfire rebellions breaking out in parts of Ethiopia, not at a national level, but as a voice of protest at the continuing hold on power of the EPRDF," Bryden said.
Besides trouble at home, Ethiopia's simmering dispute with Eritrea over their border, where a war between 1998 and 2000 cost 70,000 lives, remains a major challenge for Meles.
Eritrea argues that an independent border ruling which favoured it must be enforced immediately without dialogue, but Meles says the two sides should negotiate first.
He has said that, should Eritrea start another war, militarily superior Ethiopia would finish it once and for all.
"I don't think we're going to see a lot of flexibility from Addis. There is no sense that there is anything to be gained by ceding to Eritrea at this stage," Bryden said, referring to the "headache" it would cause Meles in his Tigrayan community that lives close to the Eritrean border.
He is likely to favour dialogue over war unless provoked, so he can keep relations with the United States and others on a good footing, Morrison said. "As long as he can
